The headline number from betterhomes’ latest market updates webinar is hard to ignore: 76% of all Dubai transactions in April were off-plan. That’s up from 72% the month prior, and according to Harry Martin, Head of Off-plan and Capital Markets at betterhomes. This tells a very specific story about where the market’s weight is sitting right now.
While overall transaction volumes are down, off-plan’s share of the market is up 9% versus pre-conflict levels during January through February, and month-on-month volumes within the segment have risen 7%. Year on year, off-plan is essentially flat, off by just 1%. For a segment carrying three quarters of Dubai’s deal activity, that’s a remarkably steady position.
Martin puts it plainly: “The secondary market perhaps has a window of opportunity to wait if they need to, or a price buffer to fall back on. Off-plan doesn’t have that luxury. It’s a build-to-sell model, and that necessity is what’s keeping the segment trading.”
That’s the structural reality underpinning the numbers. Developers need to move units. Secondary sellers can afford to hold. So when the wider market hits pause, as it has, off-plan doesn’t get the same option. It keeps going. And in doing so, it’s absorbing a larger and larger share of whatever activity remains.
The UAE’s exit from OPEC after 50 years was brought up too during the session. Martin’s observed it as a positive sign for the economy. The UAE had been held back by a quota deficit of around 1.6 million barrels per day below its actual capacity. That constraint is now gone. “It’s a really good sign for international money and international interests that the UAE are doubling down and following their own trajectory,” he said. For the broader confidence story around the UAE as an independent economy, it’s a meaningful shift.
For buyers who committed before the conflict and are now reconsidering, Martin’s advice is simple: you’re in a legally binding contract, so don’t stop paying and don’t wait. Get advice early, understand your long stop date, and if your financial position has changed, explore your resale options sooner rather than later.
Overall, the data points to a market that isn’t in retreat. It’s a market that’s recalibrating, and off-plan is where that recalibration is playing out most visibly.
