The outlook reflects the significant long-term potential of Africa’s aviation market. Passenger traffic from, to and within Africa is expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, growing at 4.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), making it the continent with the second-fastest growing aviation market in the world after Asia.
Taking a closer look at the African market, Ethiopia is expected to see one of the strongest aviation growth rates, with origin-and-destination passenger traffic forecasted to increase almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045.
“Aviation is one of the most powerful catalysts for Africa’s broader economic development,” said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and Middle East. “As we look toward a future of unprecedented passenger growth, building a strong, collaborative aviation ecosystem will seamlessly connect communities, accelerate regional trade, and unlock new avenues of shared prosperity across Ethiopia and the whole continent.”
Growth will be supported by strong demographic and economic fundamentals. Africa’s population is expected to increase by 720 million people to over two billion by 2045, while its middle-class population will grow by 180 million and its urban population by 450 million or 47% of the overall population. Over the 2025-2045 period, real GDP and real trade are forecast to grow at CAGRs of 4.0% and 3.9%, respectively, further supporting long-term demand for connectivity and air travel.
The propensity to travel is expected to rise significantly across major African markets. By 2045, yearly trips per capita are forecast to surge by 150% in Ethiopia and increase by 100% in both Nigeria and South Africa. These strong percentage increases equate to millions of additional passengers annually. Reflecting this immense growth potential and expanding connectivity, overall air capacity from, to, and within the continent already more than doubled between 2005 and 2025.
Tourism and trade will remain important enablers of Africa’s aviation growth. Greater visa openness, expanding fifth-freedom connectivity and trade integration are supporting passenger travel across the continent. The implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and continued investment in regional and airport infrastructure also have the potential to strengthen intra-African trade and connectivity, while improving access to remote tourism destinations.
Africa is also accelerating the transition towards latest generation aircraft, with these aircraft expected to represent 65% of the region’s fleet by 2035, up from 30% in 2025. This fleet modernisation will help boost efficiency and support the long-term sustainability of Africa’s aviation sector.
