• We forecast Dubai’s economy to grow by 4.5% in 2026, in line with our estimate for 2025 and outpacing global averages.
• Growth will be supported by strong momentum, rising tourism, easing regional tensions, and robust private and public sector activity.
• Population and visitor numbers are increasing, driving demand for real estate and infrastructure.
• Inflation is forecast to remain moderate, with government investment focused on transport infrastructure and city livability improvements.

Edward Bell, Acting Group Head of Research and Chief Economist for Emirates NBD, will be available to conduct interviews.

Oil markets to extend slump in 2026

• Oil demand growth is set to slow in line with moderate global economic activity in 2026.
• OPEC+ has unwound substantial production restraint and along with supply increases from non-OPEC+ producers, supply will overwhelm demand in 2026.
• Global inventories are forecast to build at a faster pace than during the Covid-19 pandemic, helping the market to absorb exogenous shocks.
• Prices will decline for a fourth year in a row with Brent at an average of USD 60/b and WTI at USD 55/b.

Edward Bell, Acting Group Head of Research and Chief Economist for Emirates NBD, will be available to conduct interviews.

Outlook for Saudi remains positive in 2026

• Growth in Saudi Arabia is expected to accelerate to 4.8% in 2026, with continued strong non-oil activity supplemented by rising oil production following OPEC+ production increases.
• Non-oil growth is expected to be supported by real private sector consumption and project spending.
• While some investments within the Kingdom are reevaluated, the sheer scale of the pipeline means that project spending will likely continue to provide stimulus.
• We expect the fiscal deficit to hold close to levels seen in 2025, reaching 5.2% of GDP in 2026.