Savills Middle East Q1 report highlights sustained price growth and continued off-plan dominance, as the market navigates a quieter near-term environment shaped by regional developments and seasonal factors.
Dubai’s residential property market has entered a more measured phase in Q1 2026, following a strong start to the year, according to Savills latest Dubai Residential Q1 2026 report.
Transaction volumes reached approximately 45,208 in Q1, reflecting a 17% quarter-on-quarter downward adjustment after three consecutive quarters in 2025 where volumes exceeded 50,000. Activity in January and February remained broadly in line with 2025 trends, while March saw a temporary easing in momentum.
This shift was influenced by a combination of factors. The wider regional geopolitical developments understandably led to a more cautious and considered approach among market participants while seasonal trends governed by Ramadan, the Eid holiday period and spring break at schools also affected the pace of activity.
This moderation was most evident within the secondary (ready) market, where transactions declined by approximately 40% month-on-month in March, compared to the stronger activity levels recorded in January and February. As a result, the segment’s share of total transactions eased from around 30–33% in January-February to approximately 23% in March.
Despite this near-term adjustment, underlying market fundamentals remain intact. The off-plan segment continues to dominate, accounting for 72% of total transactions in Q1, supported by strong demand for high-quality projects and long-term investment confidence in Dubai’s residential market. However, this momentum is likely to ease following a reduction in new off-plan launches following the onset of the conflict.
The prime residential segment also demonstrated resilience, with 2,064 transactions recorded above AED 10 million during the quarter. While activity moderated sequentially from January and February to March, demand remains evident, particularly for well-located, high-quality assets.
From a pricing perspective, average values continued to show growth across Q1, with average apartment prices rising from AED 1,942 per sq ft in 2025 to AED 2,010 per sq ft, while villa/townhouse prices increased from AED 1,501 per sq ft to to AED 1,664 per sq ft. These near term increase could see downward pressure in Q2 as buyers seek more value and negotiations on pricing pick up pace.
Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency at Savills Middle East, commented, “What we are seeing is a natural shift towards a more measured and considered market environment following an extended period of strong activity. While some short-term moderation has emerged, particularly in March, this is being shaped by a combination of external factors and seasonal patterns rather than any structural change in demand. These trends need to be interpreted with caution, whilst not only being informed by evolving geopolitical developments, but also considering the broader quarterly period’s context.
Dubai’s residential market continues to be underpinned by strong fundamentals that have emerged through the years, including sustained investor interest, population growth and the city’s global appeal. High-quality developments and well-located assets are continuing to attract both end-users and investors, reinforcing confidence in the market’s long-term trajectory. What is clear is that in the short term the market has flipped from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market where buyers look for value and sellers cash in on previous capital gains.”
Looking ahead, near-term activity may continue to reflect a more cautious approach as buyers and investors assess market conditions. However, this is expected to remain a gradual adjustment, with no indication of significant market imbalance.
With a substantial pipeline of future supply expected over the coming years, market performance will increasingly be shaped by asset quality, location and pricing strategy, further supporting a shift towards a more selective and mature market environment.
About Savills Middle East:
Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. With a presence in the Middle East for over 40 years, Savills offers an extensive range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services across the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Expertise includes property management, residential and commercial agency services, property and business assets valuation, and investment and development advisory. Originally founded in the UK in 1855, Savills has an international network of over 700 offices and associates employing over 40,000 people across the Americas, UK, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East.
