By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com
Gold prices are treading water as traders await clarity from this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to offer fresh insight into the future path of U.S. interest rates. Despite several fundamental catalysts—including a softening U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions—volatility in the gold market has been conspicuously absent.
Technically speaking, gold appears to be tightening into a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic chart formation that often precedes a significant breakout. The price has been coiling for several sessions, oscillating in a narrowing range without any meaningful resolution. Such a structure suggests that gold is building up for a potential directional move, though the trigger remains elusive.
The market has repeatedly attempted to break either side of this triangle but failed to sustain momentum. The $3,450–$3,400 zone continues to act as a cap on the upside, while buyers have stepped in near $3,330, reinforcing support. A confirmed break and hold above key resistance at $3,405 would be needed to signal renewed bullish conviction.
From a macro perspective, gold is caught in a tug-of-war. On one side, weaker U.S. dollar dynamics and signs of easing inflation create a backdrop conducive to higher gold prices. A dovish shift from the Fed—which could materialize at Jackson Hole—would reinforce this view and push gold higher.
On the flip side, the macroeconomic picture remains highly conflicted. Stronger-than-expected U.S. data, such as retail sales and industrial production, continue to challenge the case for a swift pivot to easing. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are present but inconsistent—flaring up one week and fading the next—making it difficult for gold to price in a sustained risk premium.
Realistically, you’ve got a reason to be a seller if you want, but a much stronger reason to be a buyer. There is just a lot going on. This indecision is playing out in the charts, where the market lacks a clear directional bias and is awaiting a catalyst.
