Capital.com retail client sentiment data shows how traders responded to the latest market moves, where rising yields have hurt risk appetite and favoured the dollar. Rather than read the pullback in equity indices as a reason to sell, retail traders across US equities increased buying, with sentiment shifting in the Nasdaq 100 from majority short (56%) to majority buy (57%), and reaching heavy buy territory in both the S&P 500 (65% from 61% a week earlier) and the Russell 2000 (67% from 64%). These readings reflect client positioning in response to recent market moves and do not indicate future market direction.
The response was, if anything, more pronounced in Asia. The Nikkei 225 saw the sharpest single move in the data, swinging from slight sell (51%) to heavy buy (65%), while both the ASX 200 (91% from 88%) and Hang Seng (89% from 82%) pushed further into extreme buy territory.
On the commodities front, sentiment in gold moved from heavy long (75%) to extreme buy (82%) and silver deepened further into extreme buy (at 85%). The same couldn’t be said for oil: the increase in WTI saw long traders close out while fresh shorts were initiated, flipping sentiment from majority long (58%) to majority short (58%), the clearest sign in the data that retail clients were interpreting the price move as unsustainable rather than following it higher.
In FX, retail traders responded to dollar strength by fading the move, causing sentiment in EUR/USD to shift from majority short (56%) to majority long (60%) as sell positions closed and longs were initiated, while GBP/USD moved into heavy buy territory (65% from 51%).
Monte Safieddine, Head of Market Research, Capital.com MENA, said:
“The Capital.com retail client data shows how a large group of traders responded to recent market moves: increasing long positioning in equity indices, reducing dollar exposure, and extending long positions in gold and silver. Treasury yields are at notable levels and Federal Reserve rate expectations are shifting, both factors that can reverse quickly.
Retail client sentiment of this kind captures behaviour at a moment in time. It is not a signal of where markets are headed, and participation at this level of uncertainty is not appropriate for everyone.”
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