Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro
Dubai, United Arab Emirates – October , 2026: A recent announcement by fusion startup Marathon Fusion claiming that its technology could turn mercury into gold has raised questions about whether laboratory-produced gold could eventually affect global supply and prices. However, despite the scientific potential of the process, significant technological and commercial challenges mean it is unlikely to pose a threat to the gold market in the foreseeable future, according to Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro.
The concept involves using high-energy neutrons generated by fusion reactors to transform a specific form of mercury into gold. While nuclear transmutation has been scientifically understood for more than a century, producing gold at a scale and cost capable of influencing global markets remains unproven.
“Turning mercury into gold may sound like something from science fiction, but the underlying physics is well established. The real question is whether this process can ever become commercially viable and produce enough gold to make a meaningful difference to global supply,” said Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at etoro.
According to Marathon Fusion’s 2025 modelling, the process could theoretically produce around two tonnes of gold annually for every gigawatt of thermal fusion power, equivalent to approximately five tonnes per year from a plant generating one gigawatt of electricity.
By comparison, global gold mines already produce more than 3,600 tonnes annually, according to the World Gold Council. Even if a commercial fusion plant were operational, its contribution to overall supply would remain relatively small.
Beyond production volumes, several challenges stand in the way of commercialisation. Fusion power plants have yet to become commercially operational at scale, while gold produced through the proposed process would carry residual radioactivity. Marathon Fusion’s simulations suggest the material could require up to 18 years of storage before meeting stricter safety standards for commercial sale. Producing the specific form of mercury needed for the process also remains difficult and expensive.
“The biggest barriers are not just technological. Even under optimistic production scenarios, the amount of gold generated would be limited compared with existing mining output. The additional costs and potential waiting period before the gold could be sold make it difficult to see this becoming a competitive source of supply anytime soon,” Hassan explained.
Why lab-made gold is different from lab-grown diamonds
The development has also prompted comparisons with lab-grown diamonds, which have significantly disrupted the diamond industry over the past decade.
Lab-grown diamonds are chemically identical to mined diamonds and can be produced using established industrial processes. As manufacturing capacity expanded and production costs declined, wholesale prices fell by approximately 75% to 90% over roughly a decade.
Gold, however, faces a very different production outlook. Unlike diamonds, there is currently no commercially established industrial process capable of producing large quantities of gold at a competitive cost. The proposed fusion method would depend on technology that has not yet been commercialised, with limited production volumes and additional challenges related to radioactivity.
“The comparison with lab-grown diamonds is understandable, but the economics are completely different. Diamond production became cheaper as factories scaled up, while producing gold through nuclear fusion would require highly complex infrastructure that does not yet exist commercially,” Hassan added.
What does this mean for gold investors?
For retail investors, the development is unlikely to change the near-term outlook for gold supply or prices.
Although the science behind converting mercury into gold is credible, the technological limitations, production costs, relatively small potential volumes and radioactive by-products make large-scale commercial production a distant prospect.
“Retail investors should distinguish between a scientific breakthrough and a development that could genuinely influence market prices. There is currently no evidence that fusion-produced gold will increase supply enough to put meaningful pressure on prices. For now, this technology does not change the near-term fundamentals of the gold market,” Hassan concluded.
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