The Strait of Hormuz has closed again after a brief weekend reopening, sending WTI crude oil sharply higher and knocking risk appetite at the start of the week, even as US equity index futures remain close to last Friday’s record highs. Traders who entered long positions during recent sessions have been quick to reduce exposure when price moves exceed their typical ranges, resulting in a broad pullback in long bias across equity indices. The proportion of traders long the S&P 500 now stands at 59% from 64% last Monday, the Dow 30 at 61% from 67% moving out of heavy long territory, the Russell 2000 easing to 55% from 63%, and the Nasdaq 100 shifting from a slight long 51% to a slight sell 54% as the tech-heavy index had outperformed over the prior week.
A similar reduction in long bias played out in the DAX 40, where it has fallen to 58% from 67%, and in the Hang Seng, pulling back to 76% from an extreme long 81% the previous Monday. The FTSE 100 and ASX 200 moved in the opposite direction: long bias in the FTSE 100 edged up to 70% from 69%, while traders in the ASX 200 pushed further into extreme long territory at 83% from 78%, adding long positions alongside last week’s price moves rather than reducing exposure. The ASX pattern is consistent with a significant proportion of trend-following traders in that market.
In commodities, gold is no longer at extreme long levels, with the proportion of traders holding long positions falling to 73% from 79% a week ago. A gap lower in gold prices at the start of this week left some traders who had entered on dips caught by the move. In WTI, the renewed disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic has attracted fresh long positioning, taking majority long bias to 69%.
In currency markets, USD/JPY has seen a shift in trader positioning as the pair hovers close to the 160 level, a region that has historically drawn close market attention. With volatility in the pair remaining limited, some traders appear to be range-trading around levels that carry significant risk of intervention. In USD/CAD, the continued trend lower in the pair has drawn traders to the long side at a notably increased rate over the past week, with the proportion of traders long rising to a heavy 70% at the start of this week from 58% the previous Monday.
Monte Safieddine, Head of Market Research, Capital.com MENA said:
“The reopening and almost immediate re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend encapsulates the difficulty traders face in pricing this conflict. Last week’s record highs in a few key equity indices were built on the assumption that a durable de-escalation was within reach; this morning’s positioning data suggests that assumption is being reassessed. The broad reduction in long bias across US indices and the DAX reflects that reassessment, though the fact that longs have not been unwound more aggressively, and that FTSE 100 and ASX positioning actually moved higher, points to traders managing exposure rather than abandoning it. It remains difficult to trust market moves while geopolitical headlines continue to drive sharp reversals, and more so the longer the conflict persists. For now, however, a majority of traders are opting to remain on the long side.”
About Capital.com
Capital.com is a global, regulated financial group established in 2016. It operates a technology-led online trading platform that provides clients access to financial markets, designed to support deliberate and informed decision-making. The group’s operating model is structured around regulatory compliance, governance, and operational discipline. Platform design emphasises clarity, information sequencing, and risk awareness, with features intended to limit unnecessary urgency and support considered market participation.
Capital.com operates across multiple jurisdictions under established regulatory frameworks and focuses on long-term consistency, resilience, and stability. The group maintains operational offices in major financial and business centres including London, Dubai, Warsaw, Milan, Nassau, Sofia, Limassol, Nairobi, and Melbourne.
Capital Com (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under registration number 793714. Capital Com SV Investments Limited is Authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), under licence number 319/17. Capital Com Australia Pty Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) under AFSL Number 513393. Capital Com Online Investments Ltd is a Company registered in the Commonwealth of The Bahamas and authorised to carry out Securities Business by the Securities Commission of The Bahamas with licence number SIA-F245. Capital Com Mena Securities Trading LLC is authorised and regulated by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), under license number 20200000176. CC Kenya Securities Limited trading as Capital.com is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority of Kenya under license number 244.
DISCLAIMER:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. Depending on the company, between 62-81.31% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Capital.com Group. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Crypto Derivatives are not available to Retail clients registered with Capital Com (UK) Ltd. Spread bets are available only to UK clients.
The value of shares and ETFs bought through a share dealing account can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Capital Com (UK) Limited (“CCUK”) is registered in England and Wales with company registration number 10506220. CCUK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), under registration number 793714. Capital Com SV Investments Limited (“CCSV”) is registered in Cyprus with company registration number 354252. CCSV is regulated by Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under licence number 319/17. Capital Com Australia Pty Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) under AFSL Number 513393. Capital Com Online Investments Ltd is a limited liability company (company number 209236B) registered in the Commonwealth of The Bahamas and authorised to carry on Securities Business by the Securities by the Securities Commission of The Bahamas (“SCB”) with licence number SIA-F245. Capital Com Mena Securities Trading LLC is authorised and regulated by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), under licence number 20200000176.
Capital.com is an execution-only brokerage platform and the content provided on the Capital.com website is intended for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the products or securities to which it applies. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Capital.com (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk.
Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
