Madhur Kakkar, Founder & CEO, Elevate Financial Services
Key Upcoming Events
| Date | Event |
| Thursday, 10 September | ECB policy decision and President Lagarde press conference |
| Thursday, 10 September | US August PPI |
| Thursday, 10 September (after US close) | Oracle Q1 earnings |
| Thursday, 10 September (after US close) | Adobe Q3 earnings |
| Friday, 11 September | US August CPI and core CPI |
ECB: The policy message matters most
The ECB concludes its two-day Governing Council meeting on Thursday, followed by President Lagarde’s press conference. A 25 bp increase is widely expected, which means the immediate market reaction may depend less on the rate move itself and more on guidance around subsequent meetings.
Market implications:
- A hike accompanied by a firm inflation-focused message could lift European yields and support the euro, while pressuring rate-sensitive equities, real estate and highly leveraged companies.
- If the ECB signals that further tightening will be conditional on incoming data or expresses greater concern about slowing activity, the Euro could soften, and European equities may find support.
US inflation: Friday’s main risk event
- US August CPI is due Friday, after Thursday’s PPI. The sequence is important: a hot PPI print could raise inflation concerns before CPI, creating higher volatility in rates, the US dollar, gold and equity-index futures.
- Market expectations are for headline CPI of around 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI around 2.4% year-on-year, with core inflation expected at roughly 0.4% month-on-month. These estimates should be treated as consensus reference points rather than outcomes.
| CPI outcome | Likely cross-asset reaction | Trading interpretation |
| Above expectations, particularly core CPI | Treasury yields and the US dollar may rise; growth equities and gold could face pressure | Markets may raise the probability of a more restrictive Fed stance at the 15–16 September meeting |
| In line with expectations | Initial reaction may be limited; focus shifts to underlying components and inflation expectations | Supports the existing policy narrative rather than creating a new one |
| Below expectations | Yields and the dollar may ease duration-sensitive equities, tech and gold could benefit | May reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten further, though the labour- market backdrop remains relevant |
Oracle and Adobe: Earnings focus
Oracle and Adobe earnings will be closely watched as a read-through on the durability of AI-led enterprise technology spending. Investors will focus on cloud and AI infrastructure demand at Oracle, and the pace of AI monetization, subscription growth and forward guidance at Adobe.
