Enrique Diaz-Alvarez
Chief Economist
Dubai, UAE,June 2026: A pull back in risk sentiment in world markets last week saw stocks worldwide generally drop, led by the big winners of the last few years, technology companies. This provided currency investors with another excuse to buy safe haven currencies, led once again by the dollar, with the Swiss franc just behind. The moves, however, were generally modest. Oil prices continue to plummet as panic about shortages reverses, and spot markets seem awash with oil. The tit-for-tat violations of the US-Iran ceasefire are doing little to support prices there, even though there seem to be clear cut differences between the parties about what they have actually agreed to. At any rate, investors seem eager to look past the messy outcome of the war.
Macroeconomic data take front and center this week. In the US, this is Jobs Week: a number of key labor market indicators will be released throughout, culminating in the June payrolls report out on Thursday. Markets expect a modest pullback from the torrid pace of job creation of the last three months, to a level still consistent with a strong job market. In the Eurozone, flash inflation for June will be released Wednesday. The first positive impact of lower energy prices is expected to filter through to both the headline and core indices. As for the UK, all eyes will be on PM-apparent Burnham’s pick for Chancellor to gauge the strength of his commitment to the fiscal rules.
GBP:
Sterling continues to trade well against other European currencies, suggesting that Andy Burnham’s professed respect for the UK fiscal rules is being taken seriously for now, and no fiscal risk premium is being exacted from the Pound. Although the data calendar is light, this week should provide a key test of this assumption. We believe that investors are being too kind, and are not pricing in the pressure from Labour’s left to increase spending, whether that comes at the expense of even higher taxation on business or increased Gilt issuance. Either way, we see little room for further Sterling appreciation against the Euro.
EUR:
The June PMI indices of business activity rebounded to levels recently consistent with modest growth, at an annualized rate of around 1%. We are somewhat optimistic that the combination of lower energy prices and the slow diffusion of the German stimulus package from last year may push these numbers up modestly, but it is hard to see it in the data yet. This week’s inflation data should offer some relief to the ECB, but perhaps more important for markets will be the latter’s many speeches and communications at its annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.
USD:
A string of positive data surprises last week (PMI indices, GDP, personal spending, durable goods orders) suggests that the US economy continues to power ahead on the back of strong investment, not all of it driven by AI. The key test comes this week, however, with the release of June jobs data on Thursday, ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. Now that Chair Warsh has vowed to reduce significantly the flow of information from the Federal Reserve to markets, key data points like this week’s payroll release take up added importance for investors.
About Ebury:
Ebury is the leading payments specialist that helps small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) operate and grow internationally. It is a global fintech company with a comprehensive and tailored offering to enable businesses to make and receive cross-border payments, open currency accounts, and manage currency risk.
Founded in 2009 by Juan Lobato and Salvador Garcia in London, Ebury now has over 1,800 employees serving more than 21,000 customers across 40 offices in 29 markets. We have capabilities in 130+ currencies. Ebury has grown rapidly and profitably in recent years.
In FY 2025, revenues rose to £286.5 million, and EBITDA grew to £44.9 million. It is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) in the UAE and backed by top-tier investors, including Banco Santander, who have a majority share ownership.
