Dubai Real Estate Over Three Months: Increased Supply Reshapes the Rules of Competition… and Geopolitical Shifts Reshape Investor Behaviour

Off-Plan Property Attracts Buyers… While Ready Property Leads in Value

Dubai’s Real Estate Sector Shifts from Betting on the Market to Selecting the Asset

Geopolitics Enters Market Calculations, and Opportunities Require a More Precise Reading

Every Area Has Its Own Story… The Market Is No Longer Moving in One Direction

Brands Make a Strong Entry into the Luxury Real Estate Market

Competition Shifts from Launching Projects to Capturing Demand

A Decline in Transaction Value Does Not Necessarily Mean Falling Prices

Dubai, United Arab Emirates, October 2026:

By: Dr Mohanad Alwadiya, CEO of “Harbor Real Estate”

Dubai Real Estate… Three Markets Within One Market

By the end of the third quarter of 2026, Dubai’s real estate landscape reveals a market that is not moving at a single pace, but rather taking shape along three main tracks, each with its own dynamics and demand drivers.

The first track is the broad residential market, which has become more sensitive to prices, the volume of supply, and the level of competition among projects. The second track is the off-plan property market, which continues to attract a large number of transactions, benefiting from the diversity of projects and payment plans that give buyers greater flexibility in making decisions.

By contrast, the luxury market moves according to different criteria, most notably global wealth flows, product scarcity, the quality of developments, and prime locations. Despite continued demand in this segment, higher levels of selectivity have begun to emerge, particularly in the higher price brackets.

This divergence explains how the market can, at the same time, witness a slowdown in some transaction indicators, while prices remain resilient in other segments and investment continues to flow toward specific projects and assets.

For investors, perhaps the most prominent feature of the current phase is the widening range of choices. Increased supply, diverse payment plans, price differences between areas, and varying levels of demand are all factors that give investors the opportunity to compare a greater number of alternatives.

For this reason, the question is no longer simply whether Dubai’s real estate market is rising or falling; rather, it has become more important to determine which market, which area, and which type of asset we are talking about.

Geopolitical developments in the region have also prompted some investors to reassess risks and the allocation of capital, which could support demand for Dubai among segments seeking a regional hub for business, residence, and investment.

However, it is important that this opportunity not be understood as a direct result of the regional crisis alone. Dubai’s appeal is also based on well-established structural factors, including infrastructure, the regulatory environment, population growth, the emirate’s position as a global hub for business, tourism, and aviation, as well as the continued inflow of foreign capital.

Despite the difficult regional conditions, the market has not come to a halt. Q3 2026 data indicates that the total value of real estate sales in Dubai reached approximately AED 93 billion across around 37,000 transactions. Mortgages reached AED 49 billion (12,332 transactions), while gifts amounted to AED 12 billion (2,155 transactions). This brought total real estate transactions to AED 154 billion, resulting from more than 52,000 transactions.

These figures reflect continued activity, but they do not necessarily mean that the market is continuing at the same pace seen during some stages of the previous boom. The current picture appears closer to a rebalancing, a reassessment of risks, and increasing investor selectivity.

By the end of the third quarter, the picture does not appear to point toward a market collapse, nor does it reflect the continuation of previous growth without change. Rather, we are facing a new phase in which buyers have a wider range of choices, while competition among projects and developers is increasing.

In my view, the investment opportunity in the current phase does not lie in betting on a broad-based rise in prices, but rather in the ability to distinguish assets with genuine value.

A property that combines a strong location, a reasonable price, a developer with a good track record, genuine demand, and a sustainable return may become more attractive in a market where reliance on a general upward wave encompassing all areas and projects is declining.

Here, a greater degree of market maturity becomes evident; the wider the range of choices, the more important it becomes to analyse the asset itself rather than merely reading the general direction of prices.

I believe the most prominent shift revealed by the third quarter is the market’s gradual transition from a phase in which it was possible to benefit from the market’s general direction to a phase in which the choice of asset, location, timing, and investment terms becomes more important.

General market indicators may move in one direction, while a particular area or specific project records different performance, depending on product quality, the volume of supply, and the level of demand.

From here, the equation for the next phase takes shape: a relative slowdown in some transaction indicators, offset by a widening range of selective investment opportunities.

Dubai’s real estate market entered a new phase of competition and rebalancing during the third quarter of 2026, after market data showed a decline in transaction volumes compared with the levels recorded in the previous year, alongside the continued flow of new projects and a widening range of choices for buyers.

These developments cannot be read in isolation from the geopolitical shifts witnessed in the Middle East during the year. Regional uncertainty affected investor confidence and the speed of decision-making, at a time when Dubai demonstrated a notable ability to maintain its appeal as a destination for business, investment, and residence.

Market data indicates that this interaction between increased supply, changing buyer behaviour, geopolitical developments, and continued capital inflows has contributed to the market entering a more selective phase; a phase that may, at the same time, present challenges for some projects and segments, and more attractive investment opportunities for investors capable of selecting the right asset at the right price.

Transactions Decline… but the Market Does Not Stop:

Dubai real estate market transaction data during the summer showed a relative decline in sales activity compared with some previous periods.

Despite the difficult regional conditions, the market did not come to a halt. Q3 2026 data indicates that the total value of real estate sales in Dubai reached approximately AED 93 billion across around 37,000 transactions. Mortgages reached AED 49 billion (12,332 transactions), while gifts amounted to AED 12 billion (2,155 transactions). This brought total real estate transactions to AED 154 billion, resulting from more than 52,000 transactions.

A notable development during this period was the rise in secondary-market activity, with the number of resale transactions increasing by approximately 18%, an indicator that reflects continued demand for ready properties alongside new projects.

This movement is explained by a combination of seasonal factors and others related to the new phase the market is going through, as buyers have become more discerning about prices, projects, and returns, while competition among developers has become more evident.

Geopolitics Enters Real Estate Market Calculations:

Real estate investment decisions in Dubai during 2026 are no longer separate from the regional landscape. The tensions witnessed in the region affected investor confidence and financial markets, and were also reflected in travel and trade activity, as well as energy and transportation costs across global markets; these are factors that have both direct and indirect effects on the real estate economy.

However, the other side of this equation is that Dubai continues to be viewed as a global hub for business, investment, and residence.

Here, the market paradox becomes apparent: geopolitical tensions add an element of risk to the landscape, but at the same time they may redirect part of capital toward markets that investors view as more stable and attractive over the long term, foremost among them Dubai.

From Crisis to Opportunity… and a More Selective Picture:

These shifts open the door to investment opportunities that are not based on betting on a broad-based rise in prices, but rather on the ability to identify differences between assets, areas, and projects.

In a market where choices are increasing, an investor looking for a ready property with a rental return can approach the market differently from an investor purchasing an off-plan unit for resale, while the strategy of a luxury real estate investor differs from that of someone seeking a mid-priced unit.

September data indicates that some buyers have begun to view price levels and more flexible payment plans as an opportunity to increase their purchasing power, with part of demand shifting toward more moderate price ranges.

This means that the rebalancing phase does not eliminate investment opportunities; rather, it may make them clearer for investors capable of analysing return, location, and project quality instead of relying on the market’s general movement.

A Decline in Transaction Value Does Not Necessarily Mean Falling Prices:

One of the most important conclusions imposed by a reading of Q3 data is the need to distinguish between transaction volume and price direction. A decline in the total value of sales may result from a lower number of transactions or a change in the composition of the properties sold, and does not necessarily mean that the prices of all properties have fallen by the same proportion.

Data released during the period indicates that the market is going through a phase of slowdown and selectivity, while some price indicators have remained more resilient. This places the market before a different equation: fewer transactions do not necessarily mean cheaper properties.

Off-Plan Property Leads in Number of Transactions:

Despite the increase in supply, off-plan projects continue to hold a major position in Dubai’s market. August data indicates that off-plan properties accounted for a large share of the number of transactions, while ready properties accounted for a larger share of sales value.

This difference reveals the different nature of demand between the two segments. In many cases, off-plan property offers buyers an initial price and an extended payment plan, while ready property provides the possibility of immediate occupancy or rental.

Under the current conditions, these differences have become more important for investors comparing potential returns with the risks of waiting until handover.

Abundance of Projects Raises the Level of Competition:

During the past months of 2026, developers continued to announce new projects across various areas of Dubai, adding more units to future market supply.

According to August data, investments in completed real estate projects in Dubai during the first half of the current year reached approximately USD 30.2 billion, an increase of 52% year on year, while the number of completed projects rose to 104 projects and completed residential supply increased to more than 24,500 units.

This increase means that competition among projects will become increasingly linked to the details.

In a market with numerous projects, simply launching a new unit is not enough; price, project location, developer reputation, quality of finishes, payment plan, handover date, and resale and rental potential all become essential elements in the buyer’s decision.

Here, a new phase in the market begins: developers are not competing only for demand, but are also competing for the buyer’s share among a growing number of alternatives.

The Luxury Market Tells a Different Story:

By contrast, the luxury real estate sector presents a different picture from the broader market. During the first half of 2026, Dubai recorded approximately 296 transactions for residential properties valued at more than USD 10 million each, with a total value exceeding USD 5 billion.

However, other data during the third quarter also showed that demand for higher-priced properties had become more selective, with part of buyer interest shifting toward price segments ranging between AED 1 million and AED 2 million.

This development is important; it means that the market’s investment appeal is not concentrated in a single segment, but extends to different assets according to price, return, and location.

Dubai Leads the Branded Residences Market:

In September, Dubai added a new dimension to the story of its luxury real estate market. The emirate became the world’s largest city market for branded residences, with 175 projects, including 68 existing projects and 107 projects under development.

This figure reflects a shift in the nature of the luxury real estate product. Branded residences are no longer merely luxury apartments; rather, they have become a product that combines real estate, hotel services, the brand, and the lifestyle experience.

Diverging Performance of Residential Communities:

Dubai real estate market performance data and reports reveal widening differences among residential communities. The market is increasingly moving according to local cycles specific to each area, rather than following a single direction across the entire emirate. Supply and demand levels, as well as future development plans, affect the performance of each residential community individually.

This makes the current phase more important for investors seeking opportunities. In a market moving in a single direction, investing in the market average may be sufficient to achieve a result close to the market’s overall movement. In a differentiated market, however, selecting the area, project, and price becomes an essential part of the investment strategy itself.

The Third Quarter in Brief:

The third quarter of 2026 reveals a Dubai real estate market experiencing simultaneous shifts, most notably increased supply, changing buyer behaviour, a relative slowdown in transactions, continued demand for specific assets, and the market’s exposure to geopolitical tensions in the region.

Despite higher levels of caution and selectivity, Dubai continues to attract global capital, opening the door to investment opportunities, particularly in assets with genuine value and areas that enjoy sustainable demand.

With choices expanding and competition intensifying, the opportunities of the next phase will be determined by the investor’s ability to choose what, where, when, and how to invest, while balancing expected returns against risks.